A Psychological Analysis of Belief in Fortune-Telling
A psychologist once gave college students a vague, universal-sounding personality description and asked whether it fit them. Most students felt it described them in detailed, accurate terms. Below is the statement the psychologist used—does it apply to you as well?
You have a strong need for others to like and respect you. You can be self-critical. You have many abilities you haven’t fully used, and while you do have some flaws, you generally manage to overcome them. You sometimes find it difficult to interact with the opposite sex; although you appear calm on the surface, you often feel anxious inside. At times you doubt whether your decisions or actions are correct. You enjoy some change in life and dislike being constrained. You take pride in thinking independently and are unlikely to accept others’ suggestions without solid evidence. You believe it’s unwise to be too open about yourself. Sometimes you are outgoing, friendly, and sociable; at other times you are introverted, cautious, and reserved. Some of your ambitions are sometimes unrealistic.
It’s essentially a one-size-fits-all description.
The effect is named after the famous showman P. T. Barnum, who said his popularity came from offering something for everyone—hence the idea that “there’s a sucker born every minute.” People often believe that a vague, general personality description accurately reveals their traits; psychologists call this the “Barnum Effect.”
In one study, a psychologist administered the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) to a group and then gave each person two reports, asking them to choose which one was theirs. One report contained the participant’s actual results; the other was an average profile compiled from many people’s responses. Surprisingly, participants thought the average profile described them better.
The Barnum Effect is common in everyday life. Take fortune-telling, for example: many people who visit fortune-tellers feel the readings are “very accurate.” In reality, those who seek such services are often more suggestible, especially when they’re feeling low or defeated. A diminished sense of control undermines one’s feeling of security, increasing psychological dependence and openness to suggestion. Fortune-tellers are also skilled at reading people; if they pick up even a bit of the seeker’s concerns, the person quickly feels understood. When the fortune-teller then offers a broad, harmless statement, the seeker is likely to accept it as true.